Mais vale perceber tarde do que nunca

Se bem que as 'soluções' que ele propõe não estejam à altura dos desafios que enuncia.
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"Let me try to summarise what is happening to us. Maybe I am wrong, but I want to discuss with you about it. I think that we Europeans are facing a situation in which we suffer the consequences of a process that has been lasting for years in which we have decoupled the sources of our prosperity from the sources of our security. This is a sentence to provide the headline, and I am taking that from Oliver Schmitt, who has been developing this thesis – I think - quite well.

Our prosperity has been based on cheap energy coming from Russia. Russian gas – cheap and supposedly affordable, secure, and stable. It has been proved not [to be] the case. And the access to the big China market, for exports and imports, for technological transfers, for investments, for having cheap goods. I think that the Chinese workers with their low salaries have done much better and much more to contain inflation than all the Central Banks together.

So, our prosperity was based on China and Russia – energy and market. Clearly, today, we have to find new ways for energy from inside the European Union, as much as we can, because we should not change one dependency for another. The best energy is the one that you produce at home. That will produce a strong restructuring of our economy – that is for sure. People are not aware of that but the fact that Russia and China are no longer the ones that [they] were for our economic development will require a strong restructuring of our economy.
...

On the other hand, we delegated our security to the United States. While the cooperation with the Biden Administration is excellent, and the transatlantic relationship has never been as good as it is today – [including] our cooperation with the United States and my friend Tony [Anthony] Blinken [US Secretary of State]: we are in a fantastic relationship and cooperating a lot; who knows what will happen two years from now, or even in November? What would have happened if, instead of [Joe] Biden, it would have been [Donald] Trump or someone like him in the White House? What would have been the answer of the United States to the war in Ukraine? What would have been our answer in a different situation?

These are some questions that we have to ask ourselves. And the answer for me is clear: we need to shoulder more responsibilities ourselves. We have to take a bigger part of our responsibility in securing security
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Yes, there is a fight between the democratic systems and the authoritarian systems. But authoritarianism is, unhappily, developing a lot. Not just China, not just Russia. There is an authoritarian trend. Sometimes, they are still wearing the democracy suit, but they are no longer democracies. There are some who are not democracies at all – they do not even take the pity to look like democracies.

So, this competition is a structuring force. The fight between democracies and authoritarians is there. But it is much more than that.

The world is not purely bipolar. We have multiple players and poles, each one looking for their interest and values. Look at Turkey, India, Brazil, South Africa, Mexico, Indonesia. They are middle powers
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And in the middle of that, we have the Global South. These people do not want to be forced to take sides in this geopolitical competition. More [importantly], they feel that the global system does not deliver, and they are not receiving their part."

     — EU Ambassadors Annual Conference 2022: Opening speech by High Representative Josep Borrell

(excerto)

Link to the video: https://audiovisual.ec.europa.eu/en/video/I-230995

Um convite à guerra?

 

Enquanto as partes falam e mantêm uma rotina de normalidade há esperança mas quando uma das partes abandona o campo, abandona também o entendimento e isso só pode ser interpretado como uma desistência. Das duas uma: ou os EUA têm a certeza que a invasão russa vai acontecer mesmo e agora e, nesse caso, percebe-se a retirada ou, não têm essa certeza e are calling the Bluff, o que é muito perigoso porque Putin não é o tipo de pessoa que aceite perder face. Se retiram o seu pessoal da embaixada, outros países farão o mesmo e isso é um sinal claro de abandono do campo ao inimigo. 

Biden anda a dizer, falando pelos alemães, que não vai haver Nord Stream 2, como consequência punitiva para a Rússia mas Putin já fez um acordo económico com a China, para vender gás e petróleo, no valor de 117.5 biliões. Anunciou-o na abertura dos Jogos Olímpicos de Inverno. Os caminhos da paz estão a fechar-se rapidamente e até a imprensa parece estar já preparada para a cobertura da guerra.


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Washington tinha já ordenado às famílias do pessoal da embaixada dos EUA em Kiev que saíssem do país e aconselhado funcionários não essenciais a fazer o mesmo.

Responsáveis norte-americanos, que pediram o anonimato, indicaram à AP que o Departamento de Estado planeia anunciar, ao início do dia (hora local), que todo o pessoal dos Estados Unidos da embaixada de Kiev será obrigado a abandonar o país por considerar “uma invasão russa iminente”.