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Coronavirus: Why You Must Act Now
Politicians, Community Leaders and Business Leaders: What Should You Do and When?

Tomas Pueyo



If you stack up the orange bars until 1/22, you get 444 cases. Now add up all the grey bars. They add up to ~12,000 cases. So when Wuhan thought it had 444 cases, it had 27 times more. If France thinks it has 1,400 cases, it might well have tens of thousands.
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Countries that are prepared will see a fatality rate of ~0.5% (South Korea) to 0.9% (rest of China).
Countries that are overwhelmed will have a fatality rate between ~3%-5%

Put in another way: Countries that act fast can reduce the number of deaths by ten. And that’s just counting the fatality rate. Acting fast also drastically reduces the cases, making this even more of a no-brainer.

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Flatten the Curve

This is a pandemic now. It can’t be eliminated. But what we can do is reduce its impact.

Some countries have been exemplary at this. The best one is Taiwan, which is extremely connected with China and yet still has as of today fewer than 50 cases. This recent paper explain all the measures they took early on, which were focused on containment.

How do we flatten the curve?

Social Distancing

There is one very simple thing that we can do and that works: social distancing.

If you go back to the Wuhan graph, you will remember that as soon as there was a lockdown, cases went down. That’s because people didn’t interact with each other, and the virus didn’t spread.

How Can Politicians Contribute to Social Distancing?

If you’re a politician in a region affected by the coronavirus, you should immediately follow Italy’s example and order a lockdown.

This is what they ordered:

Nobody can enter or exit lockdown areas, unless there are proven family or work reasons.

Movement inside the areas is to be avoided, unless they are justified for urgent personal or work reasons and can’t be postponed.

People with symptoms (respiratory infection and fever) are “highly recommended” to remain home.
Standard time off for healthcare workers is suspended

Closure of all educational establishments (schools, universities…), gyms, museums, ski stations, cultural and social centers, swimming pools, and theaters.

Bars and restaurants have limited opening times from 6am to 6pm, with at least one meter (~3 feet) distance between people.

All pubs and clubs must close.

All commercial activity must keep a distance of one meter between customers. Those that can’t make it happen must close. Temples can remain open as long as they can guarantee this distance.

Family and friends hospital visits are limited

Work meetings must be postponed. Work from home must be encouraged.

All sports events and competitions, public or private, are canceled. Important events can be held under closed doors.

This is the least I would order. If you want to be safe, do it Wuhan style. People might complain now, but they’ll thank you later.