About the virus - ouvir os especialistas

What Science & Experience Can Tell Us

Published March 13, 2020

By Hallie Kapner

Julie Gerberding, MD, MPH, Executive Vice President and Chief Patient Officer, Strategic Communications, Global Public Policy, and Population Health at Merck & Co. and former Director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and Michael Osterholm, PhD, MPH, Director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota

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Approximately 80 percent of coronavirus infections are mild, causing fever, dry cough, and fatigue that resolve with no complications. However, older patients, and those with pre-existing medical conditions including cardiovascular disease, diabetes, or lung disease are at higher risk of potentially severe complications. These include shortness of breath and pneumonia, which may require medical intervention and intensive respiratory support.

The World Health Organization (WHO) estimates the case fatality rate of the new coronavirus at 3.4 percent, although some studies found fatality rates between 1 and 2 percent. “That’s still 10 to 20 times higher than seasonal flu,” Osterholm said. He noted that case fatality varies among countries, a trend he anticipates will evolve as the disease spreads worldwide. Factors such as the overall age of the population, along with rates of cigarette smoking and comorbidities such as obesity, are likely to influence the fatality rate.

Drastic Action

Osterholm emphasized that coronavirus will be a concern for months, rather than days or weeks. “It’s very important that we understand what we're talking about today is a long haul,” he said. He also cast doubt on the prospect that that the new coronavirus may decrease in prevalence as the weather warms, noting that the earlier coronavirus MERS emerged in the Middle East, in temperatures as high as 110°F. “Of the previous 10 pandemics, 2 started in the winter, 3 started in the spring, 2 started in the summer, and 3 started in the fall,” he said.

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Key Takeaways

• More than 40 companies are working on a coronavirus vaccine and treatments.
• Treatment options will likely emerge before a vaccine, which is expected to take 1-2 years.

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Gerberding concluded with a note of hope and resilience. “It's normal to be concerned and frightened about something this new and potentially this serious,” she said. “Concentrate on how you can protect yourself, how you can prepare yourself and your family, and convert that energy and concern into action, not panic. We can work together to slow down the spread of this virus and I'm confident, based on what I've seen through many outbreaks in the past, that we're up to this as Americans and as global citizens.”

You can watch the video of the full webinar in our eBriefing, "Coronavirus: What You Need to Know".